Basics

What can a correlation tell us?

Look for an explanation connecting two things that vary together.

Warm weather has possible-influence arrows toward ice-cream purchases and sunscreen use, with an undirected association between the outcomes.
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The picture in words

A pattern
Two variables can vary together.
A possible common cause
Warm weather could influence both purchases and sunscreen use.
Further evidence
Comparisons help evaluate competing explanations.

Reading the illustration

This is an invented teaching example. The arrows propose a common-cause explanation for the observed association.

Try a question

What third variable could connect the two outcomes in this example?

Show the explanation

Warm weather could increase both. Testing that explanation would require information about the conditions in which the pattern occurs.

Read the sources

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